Japan Market Insights — September Ⅳ 2025:Alaska LNG, Trump’s Deal, and the Role of JAPEX vs. INPEX

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again put Alaska LNG in the spotlight, suggesting that Japan would enter a joint venture to develop the massive project. While details remain vague, his remarks have raised questions about which Japanese companies could realistically participate and benefit.

For many global investors, the immediate assumption might be INPEX, Japan’s flagship upstream energy company backed by the government through a golden share. INPEX has long represented Japan’s national energy interests and is usually the first name that comes to mind when large-scale, strategic oil and gas projects are discussed.

However, when it comes to Alaska LNG, the more relevant player is likely Japan Petroleum Exploration (JAPEX). Unlike INPEX, JAPEX has been directly involved in Alaska’s gas and pipeline discussions for years. The project itself involves transporting natural gas from North Slope fields via a long pipeline to a liquefaction terminal for export—a structure where JAPEX has accumulated expertise.

That does not mean JAPEX would move alone. In practice, major trading houses such as Mitsubishi Corp., as well as utilities like Tokyo Gas and JERA, are positioned to play significant roles in financing and offtake. Japanese megabanks, which already rank among the top financiers of LNG export projects worldwide, would also be central in bringing capital discipline to the table. This collaborative structure makes it unlikely that one company will capture the entire upside, but JAPEX’s presence at the project development stage remains noteworthy.

Another dimension worth considering is Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel earlier this year. Beyond headlines about consolidation, this deal carries potential relevance for Alaska LNG. Nippon Steel has long specialized in high-grade steel pipes for energy infrastructure, including LNG pipelines. Should Alaska’s long-delayed project advance, Nippon Steel could indirectly benefit by supplying critical materials, linking Japan’s industrial technology with U.S. energy ambitions.

That said, investors should be cautious. Even JAPEX’s own executives have publicly expressed skepticism about Alaska LNG’s economics, citing the massive scale and unclear returns. Until a final investment decision (FID) is reached, Alaska LNG remains a high-profile but uncertain prospect.

For global investors following Japan’s energy sector, the key takeaway is this: while INPEX embodies Japan’s national strategy, JAPEX is the company most directly tied to Alaska LNG’s potential upside. Add Nippon Steel’s pipeline technology into the equation, and the project might become not only about gas supply but also about industrial synergy across the Pacific.

Disclaimer

This article reflects personal views and analysis for informational purposes only. It should not be considered investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research or consult with licensed professionals before making investment decisions.

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